Work

All about momentum: Investigating high-pressure situations in the NBA through scoring probability

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: One of the defining characteristics of real basketball stars, and even great role players, is how well they perform under immense mental pressure. This paper presents a method to identify high-pressure situations during a basketball game through shooting success. Our analysis incorporates a novel feature set that emphasizes both player- and team-level momentum, including scoring streaks. Additionally, we redefine player roles using a clustering-based approach with deep learning techniques, allowing for a more nuanced evaluation of performance under pressure. Using six seasons of NBA data, we find that shotmaking is mainly impacted by the so-called momentum , i.e., when a team outscores their opponent significantly over a short period of time.

Source: International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

DOI: 10.1177/17479541251333956

Authors: Balázs Mihályi, Gergely Biczók, László Toka

Institutions: Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungarian Research Network

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: bronze

Funder: Nemzeti Kutatási, Fejlesztési és Innovaciós Alap

Awards: G1488728551, G8165792081