Work

The impact of the Crimea annexation on agricultural trade: A structural gravity approach

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We examine the impact of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea on global agricultural trade flows. Using a structural gravity model with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator and intra-country sales, we differentiate the effects of the war from those of the sanctions on trade. We estimate conditional General Equilibrium PPML counterfactual scenarios and apply a “conventional two-step approach” to assess trade potential for Russia, Ukraine and European Union members. Our results suggest that while both Russia’s and Ukraine’s trade flows benefited during the post-annexation period, sanctions had a negative impact, with Russia experiencing more severe effects.

Source: European Review of Agricultural Economics

DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbaf010

Authors: Dimitrios Dadakas, Renáta Pitoňáková, Evangelos Ioannidis

Institutions: Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Bratislava University of Economics and Business

Language: English

Topic: Global trade and economics

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $5,071