Work

Development and validation of a risk score to predict community-acquired pneumonia occurrence in the adult population

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: BACKGROUND: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) preventive strategies can benefit from a quantification of individual CAP risk. This study develops and validates a CAP Risk Score (CAP-RS) for the adult population to predict CAP occurrence in the next five years. METHODS: The development phase was as follows: a population-based case-control study to identify potential CAP risk factors for inclusion in the CAP-RS after weighting according to odds ratios; development of a numerical scoring system for weighted risk factors; and establishment of cut-off points to discriminate between different risk levels. The validation phase consisted of a population-based case-control study and a retrospective cohort study (with 47 836 adults aged ≥18 years corresponding to three Maresme (Barcelona) primary care centres) followed up over a five-year period (2015-2019). RESULTS: inhabitants for the no, moderately, severely, and very severely increased risk groups, respectively. Significant differences in CAP-free survival were observed between the four CAR-RS categories. CONCLUSIONS: The 15-item CAP-RS, which stratifies risk with good validity, can aid in the design and implementation of preventive CAP strategies for adult populations.

Source: Respiratory Investigation

DOI: 10.1016/j.resinv.2025.04.012

Authors: Mateu Serra Prat, Angel Lavado Cuevas, Ignasi Bolibar Ribas, Elisabet Palomera Fanegas, Jordi Almirall Pujol

Institutions: Maresme Health Consortium, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Hospital de Sant Pau, Institut de Recerca Sant Pau

Language: English

Topic: Pneumonia and Respiratory Infections

Subfield: Epidemiology

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,000