Work

Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Subseasonal precipitation whiplashes, marked by sudden shifts between dry and wet extremes, can disrupt ecosystems and human well-being. Predicting these events two to six weeks in advance is crucial for disaster management. Here, we show that the propagation diversity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-a key source of subseasonal predictability-will alter under anthropogenic warming. This is evidenced by a 40% increase in fast-propagating events by the late 21st century. Fast-propagating MJOs may rise in a period as early as 2028-2063, increasing the global risk of precipitation whiplashes through teleconnections. We propose a heuristic framework diagnosing that MJO's acceleration is primarily driven by enhanced atmospheric stabilization and El Niño-like sea surface warming. The expected rise in fast-propagating MJOs could improve the predictability of subseasonal weather whiplashes, offering critical lead time for disaster preparedness. Understanding these impending shifts is essential for enhancing subseasonal prediction capabilities.

Source: Nature Communications

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58955-4

Authors: Tat Fan Cheng, Bin Wang, Fei Liu, Guosen Chen, Mengqian Lu

Institutions: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Sun Yat-sen University, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $6,990