Work

Forecasting New State University Student Admissions Through The XII Level Student Achievement Pathway Smk Negeri 1 Bandung Tulungagung Using Arima Method

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Education is a means that allows individuals to develop their potential through the learning process. Vocational High School (SMK) is a formal education that prepares students to become middle-level workers or continue to college. The PTN entrance selection system involves three selection paths: SNBP, SNBT, and Independent Selection. This research aims to optimize the process of accepting new students graduating from SMK Negeri 1 Bandung Tulungagung through achievement channels, especially from report card scores. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting method pays attention to trends in student score data of those accepted at state universities in the previous year, namely student report cards from semester 1 to semester 5. From the ARIMA analysis that was carried out for student admissions at state universities, the best ARIMA model was obtained (1,1,2) with an average MAPE error value of 2.12%.

Source: Journal of Education Technology

DOI: 10.23887/jet.v9i1.86015

Authors: Siti Maslamah, Aripriharta, Anik Nur Handayani, Gwo-Jiun Horng, Muhammad cahyo Bagaskoro

Institutions: State University of Malang, Southern Taiwan University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Quality education

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $98