Forecasting Qatari Natural Gas Exports in Light of Recent International Changes Until 2030 Using the Arima Methodology
Year: 2024
Type: article
Abstract: There is no doubt that the energy sector has witnessed a distinct interest in international advantages and blocs, and even exceeded this to sports blocs because of their great importance in the field of strengthening the international economy.Qatar is considered one of the countries that represents gas products in the world in addition to oil production, which is considered one of the important national economic achievements.Qatar Natural has huge reserves of natural gas and wants an important number in the global reservations for this political commodity.Therefore, it has made great efforts to pay attention to the production sector and analyze the gas infrastructure ،.Because this sector has an important development impact in strengthening the Qatari economy, Qatar is striving to strengthen international and investment partnerships with major companies specialized in this field, which has extinguished the competitive production and export advantage of Qatari natural gas.Qatar's continuous endeavor to diversify sources of income and not be limited to exporting oil and gas.Naturally, this led to the compass turning to many important sectors, such as the modern technology, education, health, and tourism sectors.The ARIMA methodology was used to predict the quarterly time series values until the year 2030 .، Regarding the stationary tests, the series did not stabilize at the level, but rather stabilized with the first difference with and without the constant, stability, and direction.The results of the analysis showed that the ideal model for the research data is (2,1,1), that is, AR = 1 and MA = 2 with the first difference, and this model was compared.With (9) models distinguished by the lowest value AIC value = (-4.02378646315), in addition to that, the results of the econometric analysis showed a correspondence of the estimated series values with the statistical reality, represented by being ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4409914223