Work

Future changes of bioclimate in Greece: Variations in thermal stress according to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The climate change and rising global surface temperature present urgent, immediate challenges, particularly in Mediterranean regions, where bioclimate is shifting significantly. This study examines the future bioclimate in Greece by projecting changes in thermal stress from 2031 to 2060 relative to 1991–2020. Using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) and bias-corrected data from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment-European Domain (EURO-CORDEX), the thermal stress was assessed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Our findings indicate an overall increase in heat stress across Greece, especially during summer with UTCI equivalent temperatures increasing by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C under RCP4.5 and 1.6 ± 0.1 °C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Annual ‘very strong heat stress’ days increase by 2.9 % (RCP4.5) to 3.7 % (RCP8.5), with summer increases reaching 9.5 % to 11.7 %, respectively. ‘Strong heat stress’ days extend by 11.9–16.9 days yearly, while warm days and nights increase by 10–20 %. The most affected areas include inland mountainous regions and Greece's northern and western parts. The increase in heat stress highlights the growing need for effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of rising temperatures on human health in the region. • In the coming years, heat stress is expected to become more frequent and prolonged in Greece. • The mean UTCI is expected to increase by approximately 1.2 °C to 1.6 °C. • The most pronounced increase of mean UTCI is expected during the summer months. • Annual ‘very strong heat stress’ days rise by 2.9–3.7 %, with summer exceeding 9.5 %. • ‘Strong heat stress’ days rise by 11.9–16.9 days yearly, as warm days and nights grow 10 %–20 %.

Source: The Science of The Total Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179514

Authors: Katerina Pantavou, Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Petros Kyriakou

Institution: National Observatory of Athens

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change and Health Impacts

Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,250