Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Two Tributaries of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock (TECS) plays a vital role as a worldwide carbon sink, helping to mitigate global warming and lower atmospheric CO2 levels. TECS serves as a reliable indicator for predicting global climate change. The patch generation land use simulation model incorporated human and socioeconomic factors and considered global sustainable development. Various sharedsocioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios were used to simulate and predict land use types in the Yarlung Zangbo River and Its Two Tributaries (YZRTT) basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (TQP). An integrated evaluation model of ecosystem services and trade-offs was employed to estimate the TECS of the YZRTT basin accurately during the same period. The potential factors influencing TECS were examined utilizing pairwise and single components in the geographical detector. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the TECS of the YZRTT basin will reach its highest point by 2050. This is mainly attributed to converting a significant portion of grassland into forest, resulting in the forest area reaching its maximum capacity. The expansion of cropland and constructed land area has been successfully restricted. The land area in the YZRTT basin would generally decline, except for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Due to the rapid urbanization and growth of towns and cities, the existing developed land will be converted into cropland, artificial forests, and water bodies. The TECS of the YZRTT basin are projected to rise under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway- Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. The relationship between the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and TECS is negatively correlated, meaning that as DEM increases, TECS decreases. Settlements further away from the area tend to have higher TECS values. Anthropogenic influences significantly increase TECS in the YZRTT basin, eventually becoming the dominant factor. To enhance the TECS of the YZRTT basin, it is imperative for governments at all administrative levels within the basin to strategically plan the development of roads and other infrastructure while also imposing restrictions on the growth of constructed land.
Authors: Wenyuan Hao, Shillong Li, Mengru Geng, Xingle Qu, Jin Xu, Zhen Xing
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4409956225