Work

Radial Rainfall Pattern Changes of Intense Over‐Ocean Tropical Cyclones Under Global Warming: Insights From an MRI HighRes CMIP6 Simulation

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center , maximum rainfall , radius of maximum rainfall , and e‐folding radius . We find strongly correlates with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across different intensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean and increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while and shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl116146

Authors: Jianan Chen, Ralf Toumi, Lujia Zhang, Mengqian Lu, Dazhi Xi, Xiaoming Shi

Institutions: University of Hong Kong, Imperial College London, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190