Work

Global mismatch between ecosystem service supply and demand driven by climate change and human activity

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Assessing the balance between ecosystem service supply and demand (ESSD) relationship and identifying its driving factors is essential for addressing ecosystem degradation. While previous local-scale studies have highlighted climate change and human activities as critical influences, their roles at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze the global dynamics of supply-demand relationships for four key ecosystem services-food production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and water yield-over the period 2000-2020. We find that ESSD relationships generally exhibit spatially high supply-low demand and quantitatively surplus characteristics. Climate change and human activity influence ESSD relationships in dual-directional pathways. Specifically, they positively affect food production and soil conservation in 80.69 % and 72.50 % of global regions respectively; while negatively influencing carbon sequestration and water yield in 76.74 % and 62.44 % of global regions respectively. Human activity primarily shapes the ESSD relationships for food production and carbon sequestration, with mean contribution rates of 66.54 % and 60.80 % respectively; whereas climate change exerts greater control over soil conservation and water yield, with mean contribution rates of 54.62 % and 55.41 % respectively. Our findings clarify the direction (positive or negative), mode (individual or combined), contribution rates, and geographic distribution of these impacts. This research closes a critical gap in understanding global ESSD relationships and provides essential insights to inform sustainable ecosystem management from local to global scales.

Source: Environmental Science and Ecotechnology

DOI: 10.1016/j.ese.2025.100573

Authors: Shiqi Tian, Wei Wu, Shaofeng Chen, Zhe Li, Kai Li

Institutions: Nanjing Agricultural University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institutes of Science and Development, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,000