Work

Evaluating the effect of grant on affordable housing supply in England using a quasi-experiment

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: England suffers from an undersupply of affordable housing, in particular the social rented tenure. Long term there has been a decline in government capital grant for new social rented supply, which makes a 2018 policy change that provided additional grant in areas of ‘high affordability pressure’ a notable exception. In this paper, we evaluate the causal effect of the policy change on affordable housing starts in 2019/20. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate the effect of the policy to be 0.71 additional social rented starts per 1,000 dwellings in a local authority, and the effect was notably strong on homes delivered by housing associations. We find no effect on social rented starts by local authorities, or affordable housing starts irrespective of tenure. The study contributes empirical evidence on how supply-side subsidies interact with their institutional context and provides a methodological contribution by adopting a quasi-experimental design.

Source: International Journal of Housing Policy

DOI: 10.1080/19491247.2025.2482212

Authors: Michael Marshall, Meng Le Zhang

Institutions: University of Sheffield, Cardiff University

Language: English

Topic: Housing Market and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: No poverty, Reduced inequalities, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: Economic and Social Research Council