Coherence of the AMOC Over the Subpolar North Atlantic on Interannual to Multiannual Time Scales
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Direct measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are necessary to understand its evolution in a context of climate change. International programs monitored its recent evolution at different latitudes. However, the AMOC coherence over the North Atlantic remains unclear. Here, we explore the potential of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Programme (OSNAP) array to inform us on mid‐latitude AMOC strength on interannual‐to‐multiannual timescales in two high‐resolution coupled models. We find that the AMOC strength measured at OSNAP is not related to the variability of the AMOC strength at mid‐latitudes. Instead, our study reveals that the density at which the maximum overturning occurs at OSNAP is a key precursor of the mid‐latitude AMOC strength. The causal relationship between AMOC density at the OSNAP array and AMOC strength at 45°N is linked to an atmospherically driven shoaling of isopycnal surfaces that propagates along the western boundary in a year.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2025gl115171
Authors: T. Petit, J. Robson, D. Ferreira, S. Yeager, D. G. Evans
Language: English
Subfield: Oceanography
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,190
Awards: Explaining and Predicting the Ocean Conveyor, G1821804007, NSFGEO-NERC: Wider Impacts of Subpolar nortH atlantic decadal variaBility on the OceaN and atmospherE (WISHBONE), The Management and Operation of the National Center for Atmoshperic Research (NCAR), G2826985510, G2901640474, CANARI: Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK, Marine LTSS: Climate Linked Atlantic Sector Science, SNAP-DRAGON: Subpolar North Atlantic Processes - Dynamics and pRedictability of vAriability in Gyre and OverturNing, G448221831, ALPACA - Advancing the Long-range Prediction, Attribution, and forecast Calibration of the Amoc and its climate impacts, G5522298242, G564375221, G6086642266, G7480284799, Wider impacts of Subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere (WISHBONE)
OpenAlex ID: W4410135532