Work

Extreme weather and migration in the United States

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Extreme weather has become more frequent and intense over the past few decades. Given that the United States population has been historically highly mobile, direct and indirect effects of extreme weather could catalyze people to migrate. We test this empirically by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation at the county level over 6 decades (1950–2010). A non-parametric estimation yields an inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and net-migration, where decades in which the average temperature was more extreme are associated with lower net-migration. The effects are strongest for the most extreme average temperatures. We also find that extreme precipitation is associated with lower net-migration. These responses are driven by younger adults, and are not unique to agriculturally-dependent counties. These results are important as migration could mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change in the developed world. • We study the impact of extreme weather on county-level net-migration over 6 decades. • Extreme temperatures and precipitation are associated with lower net-migration. • Migration results are driven by younger adults. • Migration results are not unique to agriculturally-dependent counties. • Migration could mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change in the US.

Source: Economics Letters

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112353

Authors: David Beheshti, Nir Eilam

Institutions: The University of Texas at San Antonio, University of North Carolina at Greensboro

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,030