Work

Runoff Prediction Method Based on Pangu-Weather

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Runoff prediction is a complex hydrological, nonlinear time-series problem. Many machine learning methods have been put forth in recent years to predict runoff. A sliding window method is typically used to preprocess the data in order to rebuild the time series of runoff data into a standard machine learning dataset. The size of the window is a variable parameter that is commonly referred to as the time step. With developments in computer and AI technology, data-driven models have demonstrated tremendous potential for runoff prediction. And AI technology has opened up a new avenue for weather prediction, with Pangu-Weather demonstrating considerable improvements in both accuracy and processing efficiency. This study creates two novel prediction models, LSTM-Pangu and GRU-Pangu, by combining Pangu with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU). We concentrated on the Beipanjiang River Basin in China, using Guizhou Qianyuan Power Company Limited’s daily runoff data and meteorological satellite data from the Climate Data Store platform to forecast daily runoff. These models were used to anticipate runoff on various future days (known as the lead time). The results show that regardless of time step, both LSTM-Pangu and GRU-Pangu outperform the LSTM and GRU models. Furthermore, this advantage is more evident as the advance time increases. When the time step is 7 and the lead time is 5, the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of the LSTM-Pangu model improves by 8.1% compared to the LSTM model, while the NSE of the GRU-Pangu model improves by 11.7% compared to the GRU model. Furthermore, LSTM-Pangu and GRU-Pangu outperform LSTM and GRU models in terms of the predictive accuracy under high-flow conditions, highlighting their significant advantages in flood forecasting. This integration strategy displays great transferability and may be expanded to other typical data-driven models.

Source: Water

DOI: 10.3390/w17091405