Work

Trade Realignments and the Need for Integrated Modeling Research in Latin America's Agri‐Food Sector

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Global trade is entering a new era of fragmentation and strategic recalibration.For Latin America's agri-food systemshighly open, export-oriented, and structurally unequal-this shift presents not only economic risks but also a modeling challenge.How can we anticipate the ripple effects of tariffs, export bans, and evolving standards on households, labor markets, and food security?As Daron Acemoglu, the 2024 Nobel Laureate in Economics, warned: "We are starting uncharted experimentation now with a rapid end to the globalization episode."The Trump-era tariffs were not isolated shocks.They signaled a deeper shift toward economic security, friendshoring, and value chain nationalismforces reshaping the rules of trade and market access.Latin American exporters, often upstream in global value chains, remain vulnerable to these disruptions.And while global models can track macro adjustments, they often obscure who wins, who loses, and how deeply.This Letter argues for bridging CGE and microsimulation methods to close that gap.

Source: Agribusiness

DOI: 10.1002/agr.22057

Author: Emiliano Lopez Barrera

Institution: Texas A&M University

Language: English

Topic: Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Zero hunger, Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,800