Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: In recent years, Chinese animated films have witnessed a significant leap in commercial value through all-age transformation and IP development. However, there is still a lack of quantitative research on the short-term impact mechanism of blockbuster movies on the stock prices of film and television companies.This paper takes the release of Ne Zha 2 as the research subject. It uses the counterfactual analysis framework and the ARIMA model to quantitatively evaluate the net effect of the movie's release on the stock price. The study reveals that the emergence of a blockbuster movie has a positive impact on the stock price of the listed company. Nevertheless, the market reaction is time-sensitive, and the excess return is short-term. Innovatively, this research incorporates the artistic value of movies into the financial analysis framework, clearly separates the exogenous variable of the movie's release, and conducts prediction, comparison, and analysis using the counterfactual analysis framework and the ARIMA model. It provides theoretical and empirical basis for the strategic layout of film and television enterprises, risk management of investors, and policy optimization.
Author: Xiaoya Lou
Institution: Northeastern University
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W4410350183