Work

Optimized SEIR Model for Predicting and Controlling Diphtheria Outbreaks in Nigeria

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Diphtheria persists to be a major public health concern in Nigeria, with recurrent outbreaks continuing to plague many states. This study introduces a modified Susceptible-ExposedInfectious-Recovered (SEIR) model that incorporates intervention strategies based on optimization, to predict and potentially control future diphtheria outbreaks. This study provides an optimized SEIR model that incorporates Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP), to design dynamic vaccination and treatment strategies in order to minimize diphtheria transmission. By employing Runge-Kutta solvers in Python and MATLAB, the study demonstrates that optimized control strategies reduce cases by 45%, making them a viable tool for epidemic containment and resource allocation in low-resource settings.

Source: International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Management

DOI: 10.35629/5252-0704480484

Authors: *Ayansiji M. O *Ayansiji M. O, Ejinkonye I. O Ejinkonye I. O

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: bronze

OpenAlex ID: W4410477971

FWCI:

Cites: 1

Cited by:

Related to: 10