Work

Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives

Year: 2025

Type: conference-paper

Abstract: Harnessing blockchain's transparent user behavior data, we construct the Political Betting Leaning Score (PBLS) to measure political leanings in Web3 prediction markets.Focusing on Polymarket, we analyze behaviors across more than 15,000 addresses, 4,500 events, and 8,500 markets, capturing the intensity and direction of their political leanings by the PBLS.We validate PBLS through internal consistency checks and external comparisons and explore its relationships with over 800 behavioral features.A 2022 U.S. Senate election case demonstrates our measurement's effectiveness while decoding the interaction between political and profitable motives.The insights contribute to understanding decentralized market behavior, demonstrate blockchain's potential in innovative studies, and advance the broader development of prediction markets.

Source: ACM Web Science Conference (WebSci)

DOI: 10.1145/3717867.3717884

Authors: Hongzhou Chen, Xiaolin Duan, Abdulmotaleb El Saddik, Wei Cai

Institutions: Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, University of Ottawa, University of Washington Tacoma

Language: English

Topic: Blockchain Technology Applications and Security

Subfield: Information Systems

Field: Computer Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: bronze

Funder: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China

OpenAlex ID: W4410486484

FWCI: 3.498

Cites: 27

Cited by: 3

Related to: 10