Work

Global representation of extratropical cyclone precipitation and future trends in CMIP6 models

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: We use a cyclone‐tracking algorithm to study precipitation produced by extratropical cyclones in reanalysis data and climate models. In the Southern Hemisphere, we find strong zonal asymmetries in extratropical cyclone precipitation, with peaks off the eastern coasts of the three main landmasses. We show that models have negative biases in cyclone precipitation in exactly those centres of peak precipitation. These biases have a structure similar to biases of reanalysis precipitation compared with satellite observations, indicating that the model component of reanalysis products has similar difficulties representing extreme precipitation from extratropical cyclones. Extratropical cyclone precipitation trends are similar in the historical period and future projections, with a poleward shift of the storm tracks in both hemispheres and a general increase in precipitation from extreme extratropical cyclones.

Source: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

DOI: 10.1002/qj.5010

Authors: Martin Jucker, Acacia Pepler, Greta Paget, Caleb Burke

Institutions: UNSW Sydney, Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Bureau of Meteorology

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,320