Work

Exploring typhoon prediction and convective bursts through integration of a numerical model after vortex initialization with AI weather forecasting

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Typhoon Bebinca in 2024 experienced a nearshore outbreak (a rapid intensification (RI) near the coast), making accurate forecasting of unpredictable tracks and intensities highly challenging. The AI model is superior to the numerical model for typhoon track prediction but performs worse for intensity forecasting. Vortex initialization is an effective approach to further improve numerical prediction via cycle assimilation, accounting for multiple relocating TC centers and adjusting the typhoon initial structure. In addition, by integrating numerical runs with an AI weather model through real-time dynamic weight correction of the forecast, the predictive skill is further improved. For example, it can reduce the deviation of 72-h track forecasting by 25% compared with the numerical model and decrease the intensity deviation by 2% and 56% relative to the numerical run and AI forecasts, respectively. On the basis of the best-performing forecasting, the inner-core convective burst (CB) characteristics are illuminated. The attributions of the nearshore outbreak and RI of Typhoon Bebinca are examined. From the viewpoint of bottom-up convection growth, the CB is associated with the energy supply from the high-boundary-layer CAPE, the following upward-developing secondary circulation, and accompanying latent heat release of hydrometeors. The contracted radius of maximum winds (RMW) and increased inertial stability within the inner core region effectively prevent the escape of the high-energy atmosphere and favor rapid intensification and maintenance of the offshore burst of a typhoon. The intensifying secondary circulation further promotes the primary circulation of the TC and RI processes through the gradient wind balance.

Source: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100651

Authors: Jinfeng Huang, Shuai Yang, Yuanfa Gong

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Language: English

Topic: Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,200