Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: This inquiry explores the importance of accurate earnings forecasts for publicly traded companies in achieving investment success, particularly underscoring its significance in markets with limited analyst coverage, such as emerging markets like Poland. Statistical and machine learning models were not able to beat the naïve seasonal random walk approach in Poland according to various studies. Hence, this new approach which was never seen in the literature earlier, is presented. The study evaluates the accuracy of predictions generated through a proprietary pro forma forecasting model, a method employed to assess the potential outcomes of a company's business decisions, compared to the seasonal random walk model. It emulates the way financial analysts forecast as an optimization problem.
Author: Wojciech Kurylek
Institution: University of Warsaw
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4410826384