Ice-related flooding in the lower Yellow River driven by atmospheric teleconnections over the past 160 years
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Ice-jam floods are a unique yet understudied hydrological hazard, occurring in cold-region rivers when upstream thawing and downstream freezing create ice blockages. Despite their severe impacts, their atmospheric drivers and future trends remain unclear. Using a 160-year documentary record, historical reanalysis datasets, and statistical modeling, we examine the climatic and hydrological controls of ice-jam floods in the lower Yellow River, one of the world's most flood-prone rivers. Our findings show that ice-jam floods are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, including the Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High, and Ural Blocking, which regulate regional thermal contrasts and cold-air intrusions. Over the past century, ice-jam flood frequency has declined, with hot spots shifting toward the river estuary due to weakening upstream-to-downstream temperature gradients under climate warming. Projections using bias-corrected CMIP6 multimodel ensemble indicate a continued decline in ice-jam flood occurrences by 2100. Our study bridges historical and future perspectives, emphasizing the need for adaptive flood management as climate change shifts hydrological risks worldwide.
Source: Science Advances
Institutions: Jiangsu Normal University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Earth Environment, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,500
OpenAlex ID: W4411078130