Work

Accelerating heat pump adoption in Switzerland: An agent-based policy assessment

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Decarbonizing residential heating via heat pumps is expected to be crucial for reducing emissions in the Swiss residential building sector, yet their adoption remains insufficient. This study employs an agent-based model (ABM) to evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions in accelerating heat pump adoption at the household level. The ABM simulates the heat pump adoption by single- and multi-family houses using the implicit discount rate (IDR) as a measure for the agents’ willingness to invest. We analyze the impact of a carbon tax (120 CHF/ton CO 2 ), a 20 % investment subsidy, and a combination of both on heat pump adoption rates by 2035. In the absence of policy support, heat pump adoption is projected to reach 40 %, missing the national target of 55 %. The introduction of either policy measure increases adoption to 46–47 %, and their combined implementation achieves national targets. Policies reducing upfront investment costs are more effective than those targeting operational costs due to individuals’ high IDRs of 50.3 %. We find that households systematically undervalue long-term financial benefits and are reluctant to make investments. A comprehensive policy mix integrating financial incentives with mechanisms to lower the IDR, including targeted low-interest loans, heating-as-a-service business models, and information campaigns would help overcome these barriers.

Source: Energy Policy

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114718

Authors: Linda Brodnicke, Giacomo Rizzo, Giovanni Sansavini

Institutions: ETH Zurich, Institute of Energy and Process Engineering

Language: English

Topic: Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

Subfield: Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,940