Identifying common trends and ecosystem states to inform Gulf of Alaska ecosystem-based fisheries management
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Ecosystem-based fisheries management requires the successful integration of ecosystem information into the fisheries management process. In the Northeast Pacific Ocean, ecosystem data collection and accessibility have achieved successful milestones, yet application to the harvest specification process remains challenging. The synthesis, interpretation, and application of ecosystem information to groundfish fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) can be supported by the identification of common ecosystem trends and ecosystem states across a diverse set of indicators. In this study, we used Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA) and hidden Markov models (HMM) to analyze 92 indicators in climate, lower-trophic, mid-trophic, and seabird models for the western and eastern GOA marine ecosystems. Time series ranged from 25 to 52 years in length, analyzed through 2022. The DFA identified common trends across indicators and groups of covarying indicators (e.g., biomass of zooplankton species), highlighting opportunities to streamline communication of these data to management. Non-stationarity analyses revealed past changes in relationships, and can provide early warnings in future annual updates if previously identified correlations change. The HMM identified two to three ecosystem states in each sub-model that largely aligned with previously observed long- and short-term shifts in ecosystem dynamics in the region (i.e., shifts starting in 1975, 1988, and 2014). Annually updating these analyses, within an existing framework of reporting ecosystem information to management bodies, can streamline communication and improve early warning of changes in ecosystem dynamics. These tools can provide ecosystem support to management decisions relative to groundfish productivity and resulting harvest specifications.
Source: PLoS ONE
Authors: Bridget E. Ferriss, Mary E. Hunsicker, Eric J. Ward, Michael A. Litzow, Lauren Rogers, Matt Callahan, Wei Cheng, Seth L. Danielson, Brie Drummond, Emily Fergusson, Christine Gabriele, Kyle Hebert, Russell R. Hopcroft, Jens Nielsen, Kally Spalinger, William T. Stockhausen, Wesley W. Strasburger, Shannon Whelan
Institutions: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, University of Alaska Fairbanks, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, University of Washington, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life below water
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,382
OpenAlex ID: W4411086464