Work

Resilience Under Heatwaves: Croatia’s Power System During the July 2024 Heatwave and the Role of Variable Renewable Energy by 2030

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study analyzes the record electricity consumption in Croatia during the July 2024 heatwave and evaluates how the increased deployment of onshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) could mitigate a similar event in the future. Electricity demand and generation patterns under current (2024) and projected (2030) scenarios have been simulated using a sub-hourly power system model. The findings show that during the July 2024 heatwave, Croatia imported 35% of the electricity, with prices exceeding 400 €/MWh during peak hours. By 2030, the expanded wind and solar PV sectors (1.5 GW each) will increase the renewable share from 38.8% in July 2024 to 54.7% in July 2030. On the annual level, renewable energy generation increases from 53.8% in 2024 up to 66.9% in 2030. As result, the carbon intensity of the power sector will reduce from 223 gCO2eq/kWhel in 2024 to 197 gCO2eq/kWhel in 2030. The share of fossil fuel generation will increase slightly, from 19.7% in 2024 to 22% in 2030, but more significantly in the summer to meet the heatwave-induced electricity demand. Besides that, short-term energy storage of 2 GWh (400 MW discharge over 5 h) could effectively manage evening peak demands after solar PV ceases production.

Source: Applied Sciences

DOI: 10.3390/app15126440

Authors: Paolo Blecich, Igor Bonefačić, Tomislav Senčić, Igor Wolf

Institution: University of Rijeka

Language: English

Topic: Integrated Energy Systems Optimization

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896