Work

Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecosystem Resilience by Coupling the RAR and Markov–FLUS Models: A Case Study of the Jinan Metropolitan Area

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Confronting escalating urban ecological risks, this study investigates ecosystem resilience evolution in the Jinan metropolitan area’s mountain–plain structure. We establish a Resistance–Adaptability–Resilience (RAR) framework integrating ecosystem service value and landscape patterns. Using Optimal Multi-layered Geo-Detector and Markov–FLUS modeling, we quantify natural–socio-economic interactions and simulate resilience under three scenarios: inertial development, cultivated land protection, and ecological priority. The results show fluctuating resilience (0.1863→0.1876→0.1863) with functional intensification in high-value areas and escalating vulnerability in low-value regions, alongside the spatial dichotomy between the resilient southern mountains and northern plains, dominated by natural factors. Cultivated land protection degrades mountain resilience via slope farming, while ecological priority stabilizes it through transitional controls. The proposed “resilience red line–development permit” mechanism demonstrates terrain and policy integration optimizing resilience allocation. This framework offers strategies to reconcile ecological conservation and farmland security in urbanizing regions.

Source: Sustainability

DOI: 10.3390/su17125305

Authors: Chenglong Li, Jingyi Shi, Yihong Chen, Wenwen Zou, Anna Chen, Yue Pan

Institution: Shandong Agricultural University

Language: English

Topic: Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896