Network-driven vaccination strategies for preventing rebound dynamics in metapopulation epidemic control

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: A critical question in epidemic control concerns the minimal requirements for a vaccination campaign to effectively halt a contagion process. However, control measures can inadvertently trigger resurgence dynamics, driven by a reservoir of susceptible individuals left unexposed in the controlled wave. This phenomenon, known as the "rebound effect," is often preceded by a temporary drop in cases, usually termed as the "honeymoon period." In this study, we examine the fundamental conditions for rebound dynamics within a metapopulation network framework. By elucidating the mechanisms underlying rebound events, we derive a rigorous mathematical criterion that identifies, based solely on the metapopulation network structure, the specific vaccination strategies likely to precipitate a rebound. Additionally, we propose an alternative vaccination protocol designed to eliminate rebound dynamics entirely. This approach is analytically validated and offers a robust pathway toward sustainable epidemic control.

Source: Physical review. E

DOI: 10.1103/51fg-4rhx

Authors: Piergiorgio Castioni, Alex Arenas

Institutions: Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: green

Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, James S. McDonnell Foundation, Battelle, European Commission, Generalitat de Catalunya, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

OpenAlex ID: W4411196960