Work

Generation expansion planning: Transitioning toward decarbonization with a focus on reliability and Dunkelflaute

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Modern power systems increasingly rely on variable renewable energy sources, supported by energy storage systems and gas power plants, to meet decarbonization targets. However, the high penetration of renewables introduces significant uncertainty due to their weather-dependent nature, posing challenges to system reliability. This paper proposes a probabilistic, multi-level generation expansion planning framework that integrates reliability assessments, with a particular emphasis on the role of energy storage systems. A novel probabilistic approach is also introduced to model the Dunkelflaute phenomenon and evaluate its impact on system reliability. Additionally, the study explores the influence of regulatory mechanisms — referred to as embedded system reliability schemes — on reliability outcomes. The proposed optimization model is tested on a modified IEEE Reliability Test System and validated through scenario-based simulations and sensitivity analyses. Results highlight the pivotal roles of reliability targets, storage system characteristics, and embedded reliability schemes in shaping reliable and cost-efficient expansion planning strategies.

Source: Electric Power Systems Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111871

Authors: Taraneh Ghanbarzadeh, Daryoush Habibi, S.M. Muslem Uddin, Asma Aziz

Institutions: Edith Cowan University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Language: English

Topic: Power System Reliability and Maintenance

Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Climate action, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,810