Work

Carbon assets alone are insufficient to sustain China’s agroforestry biomass power generation

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: With the phasing out of feed-in tariff subsidies, China's agroforestry biomass power generation (AFBPG) industry seeks to monetize carbon reductions to sustain its development. Here, we develop a modeling framework integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) with the integrated assessment model (global change analysis model [GCAM]) to evaluate the dynamic reduction potential of China's AFBPG under carbon neutrality and the impact of incorporating carbon assets on industry's economic viability. Our analysis estimates that the current annual carbon footprint of a typical 30 MW AFBPG project is 16.6 ktCO 2 , primarily from biomass fuel acquisition and processing. As the carbon footprint factor of China's power system rapidly declines to 15 gCO 2 /kWh by 2050, the carbon assets of China's AFBPG shrink rapidly, raising economic challenges. Deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could sustain growth of carbon assets and improve industry's economic feasibility. Introducing a rural waste disposal compensation mechanism that covers 20% of biomass procurement costs could enable the AFBPG industry to approach breakeven.

Source: Cell Reports Sustainability

DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100410

Authors: Xueqing Ma, Tianduo Peng, Tianpeng Wang, Yanru Zhang, Tianming Shao, Xunzhang Pan

Institutions: China University of Petroleum, Beijing, Tsinghua University, Peking University, Renmin University of China

Language: English

Topic: Renewable energy and sustainable power systems

Subfield: Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Field: Energy

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Responsible consumption and production, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $5,730