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Association between school shootings and youth firearm behaviours in the USA using a dynamic, staggered difference-in-differences approach

Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Background It is well documented that school shootings negatively affect exposed young people, yet little is known about how these events shape youth firearm behaviours. We examined the association between school shootings in the USA and youth firearm assault victimisation and carrying offences in the days following a shooting. Methods We matched data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s National Incident Based Reporting System from 2016 to 2022 to 550 school shootings. We measured firearm assault victimisation and weapons carrying incidents reported to police among youth and adults in counties affected by school shootings compared with bordering counties that did not, using difference-in-differences models. Results In the week following a school shooting, we find a 43.6% increase in youth firearm assault victimisation with no increase in overall or adult firearm victimisation. The increase in assaults persists for several days and we do not see a corresponding increase in assault victimisation among adults. We find a corresponding increase in weapons carrying offences, suggesting that youth firearm carrying increases following school shootings. Discussion Our results suggest that school shootings lead to the perpetuation of violence in the communities in which they occur and this continued violence affects young people. Conclusions School shootings are associated with short-term increases in youth firearm assault victimisation and carrying offences, consistent with youth accessing existing firearms. Safe storage laws and post-shooting community interventions may help interrupt this cycle of violence.
DOI: 10.1136/ip-2026-046259
Language: English
Subfield: Health
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7223213404
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Cites: 27
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Related to: 10