Enhanced Monte Carlo Schedule Analysis: Evaluation of the Open-Source Pert-Based Simulation Tool
Year: 2025
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Monte Carlo simulations represent a powerful and beneficial method for risk analysis and decision-making, especially in project management.Traditionally, proprietary software such as Oracle Crystal Ball has been the go-to solution for Monte Carlo simulations, offering advanced features at a significant cost.Recently, web-based open-source tools, such as the PERT-based Monte Carlo simulation Tool, have emerged as a viable alternative.This study compares the performance of an open-source, web-based Monte Carlo simulation tool using PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) methodology against Oracle Crystal Ball, a widely adopted commercial software.By analysing a simplified project schedule with varying levels of uncertainty, we evaluate the accuracy, usability, scalability, and cost-effectiveness of the open-source tool.Results demonstrate that the open-source PERT-based Monte Carlo simulation tool provides similar, if not superior, results in terms of accuracy and usability while offering significant advantages in terms of cost, accessibility, and adaptability.
Author: Goran Avlijaš
Institution: Singidunum University
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4411257654