Work

An Assessment of Shipping Network Resilience Under the Epidemic Transmission Using a SEIR Model

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Epidemics spread through shipping networks and have dual characteristics as both biological sources of infection and triggers of cascading failures. However, existing resilience models fail to capture this dual and coupled dynamics. To minimize the cascading impacts of epidemics on global shipping networks, this paper proposes an innovative resilience assessment framework that considers the interaction between epidemic transmission and the shipping network cascading failure. First, a weighted shipping network topology is constructed based on route flow characteristics to quantify route frequency, stopping time, and the number of infected people, and the epidemic transmission across ports is modeled with an improved SEIR model, which contains a heterogeneous infectivity function and a dynamic transmission matrix, revealing a dual transmission mechanism inside and outside the ports. Second, a two-stage cascading failure model is developed: a direct failure triggered by infected people exceeding the threshold and an indirect failure triggered by the dynamic redistribution of loads. The load redistribution strategy is optimized to reconcile the residual port capacity and the risk of infection. Finally, a multidimensional resilience assessment framework covering structural destruction resistance, network efficiency, path redundancy, and a cascading failure propagation rate is constructed. Example validation shows that the improved load redistribution strategy reduces the maximum connected subgraph decay rate by 68.2%, reduces the cascading failure rate by 88%, and improves the peak network efficiency by 128.2%. In case of multi-source epidemics, the state of the network collapse can be shortened by 12 days if the following recovery strategy is adopted: initially repair high connectivity hubs (e.g., Port of Shanghai), and then repair high centrality nodes (e.g., Antwerp Port) to achieve a balance between recovery efficiency and network functionality. The research results reduce the risk of systemic disruptions in maritime networks and provide decision-making tools for dynamic port scheduling during pandemics.

Source: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

DOI: 10.3390/jmse13061166

Authors: Bo Song, Lei Shi, Zhanxin Ma

Institution: Shanghai Maritime University

Language: English

Topic: Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management

Subfield: Strategy and Management

Field: Business, Management and Accounting

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137