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Tropical cyclone response to ambitious decarbonization scenarios

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Numerous studies have explored global warming impact on tropical cyclones (TCs), but post-global warming TC activity remains poorly understood. This study analyzed 400-year evolution of TC characteristics in CO 2 emission-driven ensemble experiments performed with the CESM2 model under net-zero (ZeroE) and negative CO 2 emission (NegE) scenarios. Findings reveal a hemispheric asymmetry in TC track changes, with the Northern Hemisphere seeing a decrease and the Southern Hemisphere an increase. Under the ZeroE scenario, asymmetry persists for 300 years, while the NegE scenario mitigates it within 200 years. This asymmetry is influenced by changes in mid-level humidity, vertical wind shear, and sea surface temperature gradients. Unlike the TC frequency, maximum wind speeds and rainfall associated with landfalling TCs are enhanced globally in the ZeroE scenario, while alleviated in the NegE scenario. These results indicate that a carbon-neutral strategy is not sufficient and that more ambitious negative emission efforts are needed to mitigate TC impacts.
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01122-9
Authors: Mincheol Moon, Seung-Ki Min, Jung-Eun Chu, Soon-Il An, Seok-Woo Son, Hamish Ramsay, Zhuo Wang
Institutions: Pohang University of Science and Technology, Yonsei University, City University of Hong Kong, Seoul National University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO Environment, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,590
Funders: National Research Foundation, Korea Meteorological Administration, National Research Foundation of Korea, Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea, Korea Research Environment Open Network, National Supercomputing Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information
OpenAlex ID: W4411369024
FWCI: 1.369
Cites: 58
Cited by: 3
Related to: 10