Work

Combining biomarkers to predict the disease activity of graves’ ophthalmopathy: a combinatory model of the NLR, TRAb and FT4

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify potential biomarkers associated with active Graves' ophthalmopathy (GO) and develop a model for predicting the occurrence and progression of active GO. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 220 GO patients (n=120 in the active phase, n=100 in the stable phase) and 70 healthy controls. Laboratory and other clinical indicators were compared in GO patients at different stages and healthy controls. A multivariate regression analysis model was used to analyze the clinical risk factors affecting the occurrence and progression of active GO, and a predictive model based on risk factors was established. Results: Higher WBC, NEU, NLR, TRAb and FT4 levels (all p<0.005) were detected in patients with active GO than those in inactive GO. The CAS score of the GO patients was positively correlated with the WBC (r = 0.155, p = 0.003), NEU (r = 0.165, p = 0.002), NLR (r = 0.134, p = 0.010), FT3 (r = 0.117, p = 0.031), FT4 (r = 0.139, p = 0.011), and TRAb (r = 0.160, p = 0.004) counts and negatively correlated with the TSH level (r = - 0.114, p = 0.043). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that the NLR, TRAb, and FT4 were significant risk factors for GO progression (all p < 0.05). The cut-off levels for predicting active GO were 8.71 IU/L for TRAb (AUC=0.643, sensitivity 0.58, specificity 0.74), 19.82 ng/dL for FT4 (AUC=0.606, sensitivity 0.41, specificity 0.75), and 2.405 for the NLR (AUC=0.597, sensitivity 0.50, specificity 0.75). A predictive model including these risk factors was built (the cutoff value was 0.6, the AUC was 0.716, the sensitivity was 0.533, and the specificity was 0.808). Conclusion: The laboratory biomarkers for the occurrence and progression of active GO include the NLR, FT4, and TRAb. We have developed a predictive combined model that may assist in timely assessment of GO activity and progression, and provide clues for future development of facile tools to predict GO activity.

Source: Frontiers in Endocrinology

DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2025.1546211