Work

Modeling the Effects of Vaccinating Strategies and Periodic Outbreaks on Dengue in Singapore

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Effective vaccination strategies can significantly reduce virus transmission, while periodic outbreaks require model prediction and early intervention to mitigate their impact. A novel dengue epidemic model with periodicity and vaccination is introduced in this paper. First, the positivity of solutions and the invariant set are given, and the basic reproduction number is obtained. Then, the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and periodic solution is consistent persistence when the basic reproduction number is more than one. Actual data are used to develop more scientific and reasonable prevention and control measures, reducing the transmission risk of dengue fever. Next, based on the dengue fever data in Singapore from 2014 to 2017, the best fitting parameters of such model are determined by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out. These indicate that vaccination is of great significance to control the spread of disease.

Source: Journal of Applied Analysis & Computation

DOI: 10.11948/20240205

Authors: Chong-Yang Yin, Xin-You Meng, Jia-Ming Zuo

Institutions: Lanzhou University of Technology, Yibin Vocational and Technical College

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: diamond

Funders: Lanzhou University, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Lanzhou University of Technology