Work

Stochastic Survival Analysis of an Epidemic Model With Innate Immunity and Treatment

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The innate immunity helps the individuals in the exposed compartment return into the ones in the susceptible compartment when a pathogen or virus invades the local population of having four compartments: the susceptible, the exposed, the infected and the recovered. In this study, we propose a stochastic SEIR model with innate immunity and treatment. Here, Holling type Ⅱ functional responses are used to describe the saturated effects of the innate immunity and treatment. Then, we obtain the extinction of the exposed and the infected when the basic reproduction number $ \mathcal{R}_0<1 $ and the exponential decline rate $ \nu<0 $ are valid. Moreover, we conclude that when innate immunity and treatment increase, the time that the exposed and the infected approach zero reduces. We also find that the deterministic SEIR model reaches extinction a bit faster than the stochastic SEIR model. Further, the persistence in the mean and stationary distribution of stochastic SEIR model are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the numerical investigations with two methods and a case study of Fuzhou COVID-19 epidemic of 2022 are discussed.

Source: Journal of Applied Analysis & Computation

DOI: 10.11948/20240180

Authors: Lijun Chen, Wenshuang Li, Ruiyang Zhou, Fengying Wei

Institutions: Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou University, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: diamond

Funders: Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Chinese Academy of Engineering