Forecasting the future of renewable energy sources in Poland against the background of the European Union states
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Purpose: The aim of the article is to develop a forecast for electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES) in Poland using predictive methods based on an approximating function. The study is situated within the broader context of the energy transition and the growing importance of RES in both national and EU policy agendas. Design/methodology/approach: The study employs a quantitative approach based on statistical data from the Central Statistics Office (GUS) for the years 2008-2024 concerning photovoltaic energy production. The primary forecasting method is a trend function, approximated and transformed into a linear form through logarithmisation. The parameters of the power function were estimated, and the accuracy of the forecast was assessed using the coefficient of determination, mean residual error, and the coefficient of variation of residuals. Findings: The results obtained indicate a clear upward trend in photovoltaic energy production, with a projected output of 31,219 GWh by 2028. The coefficient of convergence (0.0244) demonstrates a high degree of consistency between the empirical data and the theoretical model. The findings confirm the dynamic growth of the RES sector in Poland and the increasing interest of enterprises in investing in green energy. Research limitations/implications: The photovoltaic sector has been expanding year on year, despite facing challenges such as grid connection refusals and administrative constraints. These issues primarily affect large-scale photovoltaic farms, which are frequently curtailed by the Transmission System Operator during periods of high productivity due to the limited flexibility of the grid. Energy storage systems, when integrated with large PV installations, offer a potential solution – contributing to grid stability and ensuring reliable delivery of green energy. A limitation of the study lies in the variability of weather conditions that influence solar energy production, introducing uncertainty into the forecasts. The article highlights the need for further research on integrating forecasting models with grid management systems, as well as incorporating energy storage solutions. Future analyses could extend the model to include other renewable energy sources (such as wind or biogas). Practical implications: The study provides forecasting tools for businesses and policymakers, supporting investment planning in the energy sector. The results may be applied in the development of long-term energy procurement strategies (e.g. Power Purchase Agreements), grid modernisation, and the liberalisation process of the RES market. The forecasts also contribute to cost optimisation and improved energy security. Social implications: The development of RES contributes to improved air quality and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, positively affecting public health. Promoting green energy may influence social attitudes towards climate responsibility and enhance environmental awareness. The research findings may also inform public policy in the areas of decarbonisation and climate protection. Originality/value: The article offers original value by developing an accurate predictive model of photovoltaic energy production in Poland based on a power function. It provides practical tools for businesses, analysts, and energy policymakers, supporting the advancement of a low- emission economy. Furthermore, it constitutes a significant contribution to the literature on energy transition in both the Polish and EU contexts. Keywords: Renewable energy; energy production; clean energy; energy security; environmental impact of energy consumption. Category of the paper: Literature review.
Institution: University of Siedlce
Language: English
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4411729911