Work

Recurrent Deep Learning Models for Multi-step Ahead Prediction: Comparison and Evaluation for Real Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) System

Year: 2025

Type: conference-paper

Abstract: Predicting processes� future behavior based on past data is vital for automatic control and dynamic optimization in engineering. Recent advances in deep learning, particularly Artificial Neural Networks, have improved predictions in various engineering fields. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are well-suited for time series data, as they naturally evolve through dynamic systems with recurrent updates. Despite their high predictive power, RNNs may underperform if their training ignores the model's future application. In Model Predictive Control, for example, the model evolves over time using only current information, relying on its own predictions at later steps. A model trained for one-step-ahead predictions may fail when tasked with multi-step-ahead forecasting in autoregressive mode. This study explores deep recurrent neural network models for predicting critical operational time series of a large-scale Electric Submersible Pump system. We present an innovative training approach, framing the task as a multi-step-ahead prediction problem. Results show that aligning model training with its future use is crucial to ensure real-time performance.

Source: Systems and Control Transactions

DOI: 10.69997/sct.107762