Work

Entangled fates—the rally effect around Europe due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. There is an extensive literature on the tendency of national leaders to experience a surge of support in times of international crises, which is dubbed as the rally around the flag effect. However, much less attention is paid to whether a similar rally effect could be observed around a supranational flag. This study employs a quasi-experimental design to test whether the EU experienced a surge in support due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that a rally around the EU did occur, and that it is best explained by considerations of advantages accorded by a united Europe rather than through a surge in European identity. The study is a cause of optimism regarding the ability of the EU to gain the support of even those who are not emotionally attached to the European project. However, the findings also place the onus on the EU to prove itself a reliable haven from threats for those who put their trust in it, from within and without.

Source: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications

DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-05138-7

Authors: Muhammad Muhammad, Domantas Undzėnas

Institution: University of Mannheim

Language: English

Topic: European Union Policy and Governance

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,890