Work

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: An Offensive Realist Reconsideration of Philippine Grand Strategy

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT In regions riddled with heightened security tensions from great power competition like Southeast Asia, why do states like the Philippines defy conventional rationality and hedge against their treaty ally? This paper seeks to answer this gap in the literature by arguing for a new definition of hedging that covers contemporary cases. Moreover, this paper proposes the theory of Offensive Hedging, a legitimate form of middle power grand strategy that weaponizes limited alignment to accrue relative gains from great power competition. These arguments shall be supported analyzing Sino–Philippine partnerships through quarterly reports, declassified documents, and official diplomatic rhetoric and compare this alongside Sino‐Philippine tensions in the South China Sea (2016–2024). Finally, this paper shall briefly argue for the generalizability of Offensive Hedging by analyzing Vietnam's grand strategy, setting the foundation for future research using this lens.

Source: Asian Politics & Policy

DOI: 10.1111/aspp.70028

Author: Jomari Jesus G. Tan

Institution: University of Chicago

Language: English

Topic: International Relations and Foreign Policy

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,900