Work

Mitigating Model Biases in Arid Region Precipitation over Northwest China Through Dust–Cloud Microphysical Interactions

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Accurate projection of future climate trends in arid regions critically depends on reliable precipitation simulations. However, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models exhibit systematic overestimations of precipitation in Northwest China, a bias that undermines the credibility of climate projections for this vulnerable region. This persistent bias likely stems from the omission of key physical processes in traditional models. In this study, we incorporate a dust–ice-cloud interaction scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) model to investigate its role in regulating precipitation over dust-rich arid regions. This physical mechanism, which is rarely included in conventional models, is particularly relevant for Northwest China where dust aerosols are abundant. Our results show that accounting for dust-induced ice nucleation leads to a significant reduction in total precipitation, especially in the convective component, thereby alleviating the longstanding wet bias in the region. These findings underscore the critical importance of dust–ice-cloud interactions in simulating precipitation in arid environments. To improve the accuracy of future climate projections in Northwest China, climate models must incorporate realistic representations of dust-related microphysical processes.

Source: Atmosphere

DOI: 10.3390/atmos16070800