Work

The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Nigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a whole. One causal factor in these collapses is capacity inadequacy owing to reduced plant availability as plants are frequently non-operational due to maintenance or other management issues. Using a combination of OSeMOSYS and FlexTool modelling, this study shows the significant burden that persistently unavailable plants present for decarbonisation of the Nigerian energy system. Modelling which includes reliability improvements nearly halves total system costs and emissions versus business-as-usual. Further, Nigeria is unable to meet its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without such improvements, indicating that increasing plant availability and reducing diesel generator use must be prioritized in policy to support national implementation of these targets.

Source: Energy Strategy Reviews

DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101784

Authors: Sarah Golobish, Rudolf Yeganyan, Naomi Tan, Carla Cannone, Mark Howells

Institutions: Imperial College London, Loughborough University

Language: English

Topic: Integrated Energy Systems Optimization

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Industry, innovation and infrastructure, Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $4,180