Work

Health and environmental impacts of shifting to plant-based analogues: a risk-benefit assessment

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Purpose Plant-based analogues (PBAs) simulate animal-based foods’ attributes and can facilitate adherence to flexitarian and vegetarian dietary patterns, which have been associated with health benefits. However, possibly classifying PBAs as ultra-processed (UPF) and excluding healthy animal-based foods (e.g., fish) can result in unintended health risks. This study aims to quantify the health and environmental impact of replacing animal-based foods with PBAs. Methods Using data from the Portuguese National Dietary Survey (n = 3852 adults; 2015–2016), three substitution scenarios of animal-based foods with PBAs were modelled: vegan (replacing all animal-based foods with PBAs), ovolactovegetarian (replacing meat and fish with PBA), and pescatarian (replacing meat with PBA). Varying degrees of substitution (33%, 50%, 67%, 100%) and two classification approaches for PBAs were explored: UPF or non-UPF. The overall health impact was estimated considering several health outcomes (cancer, cardiovascular diseases and metabolic outcomes) combined through Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The environmental impact was measured through greenhouse gas emissions and land use. Results Environmental benefits were evident, especially for the vegan scenario. Regarding health impact, the 100% substitution of all animal-based foods (vegan scenario) might represent a risk if PBAs are classified as UPF (∆DALY average = 72,109 years). The highest overall benefit was found for 100% substitution of meat only (pescatarian scenario) independently of considering PBAs as UPF or not (UPF: ∆DALY average = − 40,202 years; non-UPF: ∆DALY average = − 88,827 years). Conclusion PBAs can be considered feasible alternatives to animal-based foods, and the results emphasise meat substitution as a crucial factor for health and environmental benefits.

Source: European Journal of Nutrition

DOI: 10.1007/s00394-025-03749-z