Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: National climate targets underpin the collective foundation towards achieving the global long-term temperature stabilization goal of the Paris Agreement. Its signatories must communicate successively more ambitious mid-term targets within NDCs, as well as long-term decarbonisation strategies (LTS). In the established 5-year updating cycle, the next wave of NDCs setting targets for 2035 is under preparation ahead of COP30 in 2025 in Brazil. This update from existing targets for 2030 offers an opportunity to better align NDCs with the most ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, reducing their prevailing ambition gap 1 . At the same time, it offers an opportunity to better align emission trajectories with countries’ net-zero targets, which show a lower ambition gap by mid-century and whose achievement could limit global mean temperature increase to below 2 °C 2 . The misalignment between NDCs and LTS results in steeper emission reductions post 2030, raising questions on the consistency and feasibility of such emission trajectories (see Fig. 1A , portraying emission pathways by income groups and corresponding countries under an existing 2030 NDC and mid-century LTS targets trajectory).
Source: npj Climate Action
Authors: Matthias Weitzel, Jose A. Ordonez
Institution: Joint Research Center
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,340
OpenAlex ID: W4412044099