Long-term prediction of ship responses considering global scale wave forecast uncertainty and applications for container ships
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Container ships frequently undertake short voyages of several days. For such short voyages, wave forecasts are generally reliable and can be used to predict ship motion, thereby allowing for the safety assessment of container-securing systems. This study quantifies the uncertainty in these forecasts to predict the long-term ship motion. With some modifications, the log-normal distribution proposed by Natskår et al. (2015) conservatively envelops global forecast uncertainties. Long-term predictions of ship motion are performed using simplified response amplitude operator formulae. The conditional probability distribution of wave period given significant wave height is provided by ERA5 data for the Asian sea area, where container ships frequently undertake short voyages. The expected responses over a 25-year return period are compared with the North Atlantic wave scatter diagram values and expressed as ratios. Formulae for approximating this ratio are proposed using a simple linear function of the maximum forecasted significant wave height. An evaluation using onboard measurement data from a fleet of very large container ships indicates that the proposed formulae yield conservative estimates of roll, pitch, and pitch angular acceleration than the target risk level. These advancements enable safer ship motion assessments using wave forecasts.
Source: Ocean Engineering
Institution: ClassNK
Language: English
Subfield: Ocean Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,150
OpenAlex ID: W4412051924