Work

Disease burden and trends of bladder cancer in the world and BRICS from 1990 to 2021 and its projection until 2036: analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Background The continuously growing burden of bladder cancer (BCa) requires comprehensive and in-depth research to understand its dynamics and forecast its trends. Using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the current work evaluates and forecasts the trend of bladder cancer’s disease burden worldwide and in BRICS countries to provide a scientific basis for the further development of targeted bladder cancer prevention and control measures.Methods This study used data from the GBD) 2021 study. Trends in new incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and various risk factors were assessed, and the relationship between sociodemographic indices (SDIs) and disease burden was determined. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and average annual percentage change of age-standardized rates and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were analyzed with R 4.4.1 software and join point software to examine the trends in the disease burden of bladder cancer worldwide and in BRICS countries between 1990 and 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also used to project the global and BRIC countries’ bladder cancer disease burden from 2022 to 2036. Findings The global disease burden of bladder cancer in 2021 featured an increase in incidence, mortality, prevalence and number of DALYs compared with that 1990. However, the EAPC of global bladder cancer between 1990 and 2021 for ASIR [EAPC=−0.36 (95%CI −0.41 to −0.3)], ASMR [EAPC=−0.98% (95%CI −1.03 to −0.94)], and ASDR [EAPC=−1.19% (95%CI −1.24 to −1.13)] showed a decreasing trend, and the change in ASPR [EAPC of 0.1% (95%CI 0.01 to 0.19)] was relatively stable. Among the BRICS countries, South Africa had the highest burden of bladder cancer in 1990–2021, and its burden increased most significantly in 1994–1997. By contrast, Egypt had the lowest burden, with the most significant decrease observed in 2001–2005. The disease burden of bladder cancer was positively correlated with the SDI worldwide and in BRICS countries. In terms of risk factors, smoking was the leading attributable cause of ASDR and ASMR in 2021, followed by high fasting plasma glucose worldwide and in BRICS countries. Projections indicated that the global disease burden will show a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2036, but some of the BRICS countries will continue to experience an increasing disease burden. Interpretation The disease burden of bladder cancer has improved in recent years but remains a major public health challenge worldwide and in BRICS countries. Hence, investment in primary health care must be further increased, the innovation and application of medical technology must be promoted, targeted and comprehensive bladder cancer health education programs must be developed, healthy lifestyle interventions must be implemented, and cooperation and exchanges on bladder cancer prevention and treatment must be actively developed among countries. Funding This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Grant No. 2021D01C277 and Grant No. 2018D01C196) and the Educational Research and Teaching Reform Program of Xinjiang Medical University (Grant No. YG2024143). Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open-access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Source: Discover Oncology

DOI: 10.1007/s12672-025-03040-x