Enhancing winter climate simulations of the Great Lakes: insights from a new coupled lake–ice–atmosphere (CLIAv1) system on the importance of integrating 3D hydrodynamics with a regional climate model
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: . The Laurentian Great Lakes significantly influence the climate of the Midwest and Northeast United States, due to their vast thermal inertia, moisture source potential, and unique heat and moisture flux dynamics. This study presents a newly developed coupled lake-ice-atmosphere (CLIAv1) modeling system for the Great Lakes by coupling the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) regional climate model (RCM) with the three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and investigates the impact of coupled dynamics on simulating the Great Lakes' winter climate. By integrating 3D lake hydrodynamics, CLIAv1 addresses the limitations of traditional one-dimensional (1D) lake and demonstrates superior performance in reproducing observed LSTs, ice cover distribution, and the vertical thermal structure of the Great Lakes compared to the NU-WRF model coupled with the default 1D Lake Ice Snow and Sediment Simulator (LISSS). CLIAv1 also enhances simulation of over-lake atmospheric conditions, including air temperature, wind speed, and sensible and latent heat fluxes, underscoring the importance of resolving complex lake dynamics for reliable climate projections. More importantly, this study addresses the crucial question about what are the key processes influencing lake thermal structure and ice cover that are missed by 1D lake models but effectively captured by 3D lake models. Through process-oriented numerical experiments, we identify key 3D hydrodynamic processes – ice transport, heat advection, and shear production in turbulence – that explain the superiority of 3D lake models over 1D lake models, particularly in cold season performance and lake-atmosphere interactions. Properly resolving these processes using 3D hydrodynamic model is crucial for successfully simulating the lake-ice-atmosphere coupled Great Lakes winter system. This research underscores the necessity of incorporating 3D hydrodynamic models in RCMs to improve our predictive understanding of the Great Lakes' response to climate change. The findings advocate for a shift towards high-resolution, physics-based modeling approaches to ensure accurate future climate and limnological projections for large freshwater systems.
Source: Geoscientific model development
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,725
Awards: THE GREAT LAKES BASIN (GLB) HAS BEEN A REGIONAL HOTSPOT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INCLUDING LAKE WARMING DECLINING ICE COVER AND INCREASED LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL. MODELING STUDIES HAVE DEMONSTRATED THE SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS. DESPITE THE VAST SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOWSTORMS (LES) THESE EXTREME EVENTS HAVE RECEIVED MINIMAL ATTENTION FROM IPCC AND NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT. THE INSUFFICIENT INVESTIGATION OF PROJECTED CHANGES IN THESE COLD SEASON EXTREMES IS PARTLY DUE TO THE GENERAL LACK OF APPROPRIATE MODELING TOOLS THAT PROPERLY REPRESENT THE GREAT LAKES AND LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT ADVANCES IN THE REPRESENTATION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AMONG REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS THROUGH 2-WAY COUPLING WITH 1D LAKE MODELS PERMITTING THE SIMULATION OF BROAD-SCALE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FEATURES. HOWEVER SUCH LAKE MODELS ARE INAPPROPRIATE FOR DEEP LAKES LEADING TO LARGE BIASES IN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) ICE COVER AND EVAPORATION. XUE ET AL. EMPLOYED OFFLINE AND 2-WAY COUPLING OF THE 3D FINITE VOLUME COMMUNITY OCEAN MODEL (FVCOM) TO WRF AND REGCM4 AND DEMONSTRATED THE BENEFITS OF INCORPORATING 3D MODELS TO REPRESENT GREAT LAKES HYDRODYNAMICS INCLUDING DRAMATIC BIAS REDUCTIONS AND ACCURATE TURBULENT FLUX REPRESENTATION WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR LES. RECENT ADVANCES IN DATA COLLECTION INCLUDING OVER-LAKE FLUX MEASUREMENTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EVAPORATION NETWORK (GLEN) AND ONTARIO WINTER LAKE- EFFECT SYSTEMS FIELD CAMPAIGN ALONG WITH IMPROVED SPACEBORNE COLD SEASON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION DETECTION BY CLOUDSAT AND GLOBAL PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT (GPM) PLATFORMS HAVE DEEPENED THE UNDERSTANDING OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS LES DYNAMICS AND SHALLOW CUMULIFORM SNOW MICROPHYSICS. WE PROPOSED TO EVALUATE AND ADVANCE THE REPRESENTATION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AND HEAVY LES IN THE GLB BY NU-WRF. NUWRF PERMITS 2 CRUDE LAKE TREATMENTS: REMOTELY-SENSED LSTS ARE PROVIDED AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS OR THE ATMOSPHERE IS 2-WAY COUPLED TO THE 1D FLAKE MODEL. IN ADDITION TO EXPLORING LSTS TURBULENT FLUXES CLOUDS AND LES IN THESE CONFIGURATIONS WE WILL ENHANCE THE REPRESENTATION OF 3D LAKE PROCESSES AND LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERCONNECTIONS BY DEVELOPING A 2-WAY COUPLED LAKE-ATMOSPHERE-LAND MODEL NU-WRF/FVCOM WHICH PERMITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMICALLY DOWNSCALED LES PROJECTIONS. HISTORICAL NU-WRF RUNS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE TREATMENTS AND EVALUATED AGAINST OBSERVATIONS TO QUANTIFY ADDED VALUE TO OVER-LAKE TURBULENT FLUXES AND LES FREQUENCY/INTENSITY FROM INCORPORATING 3D LAKE PROCESSES AND ADVANCED LAKE-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING. GLEN MEASUREMENTS WILL BE USED TO EVALUATE TURBULENT FLUX RESPONSES TO ICE COVER AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF EVAPORATION EVENTS. FOR A SET OF OBSERVED LES WE WILL CREATE A NU-WRF/FVCOM ENSEMBLE EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF MICROPHYSICAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE AND RADIATION SCHEMES; VERTICAL RESOLUTION; AND GRID SPACING ON MORPHOLOGIES OF LAKE-INDUCED MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. BY VARYING PARAMETERIZATIONS AND PERFORMING RUNS WITH IMPOSED LAKE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THE SENSITIVITY OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF LAKEEFFECT SNOWFALL AND RESULTING SNOWFALL BIASES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO LST OR MICROPHYSICS BIASES. EVALUATING THE REPRESENTATION OF HEAVY LES IN NU-WRF WILL BE GROUNDED IN CLOUDSAT/GPM PRODUCTS. WE WILL EVALUATE CLOUDSAT/GPM SNOWFALL RETRIEVALS AGAINST STATION OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO EVALUATING NU-WRF AGAINST CLOUDSAT/GPM VERTICAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRANSECTS FOR CASE STUDIES WE WILL EXAMINE THE SPECTRUM OF SNOW EVENTS THROUGH DENSITY FUNCTIONS OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY-BASED ESTIMATES OF SNOWFALL INTENSITY/FREQUENCY AND CLOUD ATTRIBUTES ALLOWING FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE MODEL S MICROPHYSICS. RADAR SIMULATORS WILL BE APPLIED TO MODEL OUTPUT TO COMPARE RADAR REFLECTIVITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN SIMULATED AND OBSERVED LES DATASETS., RAISE: CHIRRP: Empowering Climate Resilience (ECR): Confronting Coastal Hazards for Rural and Indigenous Communities (CCHRIC) in the Great Lakes Region, CENTER FOR CLIMATE-DRIVEN HAZARD ADAPTATION, RESILIENCE, AND MITIGATION (C-CHARM) IN GREAT LAKES RURAL COMMUNITIES, G4831822994, G7755654425, THE GREAT LAKES BASIN (GLB) HAS BEEN A REGIONAL HOTSPOT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS INCLUDING LAKE WARMING DECLINING ICE COVER AND INCREASED LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL. MODELING STUDIES HAVE DEMONSTRATED THE SUBSTANTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS. DESPITE THE VAST SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOWSTORMS (LES) THESE EXTREME EVENTS HAVE RECEIVED MINIMAL ATTENTION FROM IPCC AND NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT. THE INSUFFICIENT INVESTIGATION OF PROJECTED CHANGES IN THESE COLD SEASON EXTREMES IS PARTLY DUE TO THE GENERAL LACK OF APPROPRIATE MODELING TOOLS THAT PROPERLY REPRESENT THE GREAT LAKES AND LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT ADVANCES IN THE REPRESENTATION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AMONG REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS THROUGH 2-WAY COUPLING WITH 1D LAKE MODELS PERMITTING THE SIMULATION OF BROAD-SCALE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FEATURES. HOWEVER SUCH LAKE MODELS ARE INAPPROPRIATE FOR DEEP LAKES LEADING TO LARGE BIASES IN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE (LST) ICE COVER AND EVAPORATION. XUE ET AL. EMPLOYED OFFLINE AND 2-WAY COUPLING OF THE 3D FINITE VOLUME COMMUNITY OCEAN MODEL (FVCOM) TO WRF AND REGCM4 AND DEMONSTRATED THE BENEFITS OF INCORPORATING 3D MODELS TO REPRESENT GREAT LAKES HYDRODYNAMICS INCLUDING DRAMATIC BIAS REDUCTIONS AND ACCURATE TURBULENT FLUX REPRESENTATION WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR LES. RECENT ADVANCES IN DATA COLLECTION INCLUDING OVER-LAKE FLUX MEASUREMENTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EVAPORATION NETWORK (GLEN) AND ONTARIO WINTER LAKE- EFFECT SYSTEMS FIELD CAMPAIGN ALONG WITH IMPROVED SPACEBORNE COLD SEASON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION DETECTION BY CLOUDSAT AND GLOBAL PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENT (GPM) PLATFORMS HAVE DEEPENED THE UNDERSTANDING OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS LES DYNAMICS AND SHALLOW CUMULIFORM SNOW MICROPHYSICS. WE PROPOSED TO EVALUATE AND ADVANCE THE REPRESENTATION OF LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS AND HEAVY LES IN THE GLB BY NU-WRF. NUWRF PERMITS 2 CRUDE LAKE TREATMENTS: REMOTELY-SENSED LSTS ARE PROVIDED AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS OR THE ATMOSPHERE IS 2-WAY COUPLED TO THE 1D FLAKE MODEL. IN ADDITION TO EXPLORING LSTS TURBULENT FLUXES CLOUDS AND LES IN THESE CONFIGURATIONS WE WILL ENHANCE THE REPRESENTATION OF 3D LAKE PROCESSES AND LAKE-ATMOSPHERE INTERCONNECTIONS BY DEVELOPING A 2-WAY COUPLED LAKE-ATMOSPHERE-LAND MODEL NU-WRF/FVCOM WHICH PERMITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DYNAMICALLY DOWNSCALED LES PROJECTIONS. HISTORICAL NU-WRF RUNS WILL BE PRODUCED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE TREATMENTS AND EVALUATED AGAINST OBSERVATIONS TO QUANTIFY ADDED VALUE TO OVER-LAKE TURBULENT FLUXES AND LES FREQUENCY/INTENSITY FROM INCORPORATING 3D LAKE PROCESSES AND ADVANCED LAKE-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING. GLEN MEASUREMENTS WILL BE USED TO EVALUATE TURBULENT FLUX RESPONSES TO ICE COVER AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF EVAPORATION EVENTS. FOR A SET OF OBSERVED LES WE WILL CREATE A NU-WRF/FVCOM ENSEMBLE EXPLORING THE IMPACT OF MICROPHYSICAL BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE AND RADIATION SCHEMES; VERTICAL RESOLUTION; AND GRID SPACING ON MORPHOLOGIES OF LAKE-INDUCED MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. BY VARYING PARAMETERIZATIONS AND PERFORMING RUNS WITH IMPOSED LAKE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THE SENSITIVITY OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF LAKEEFFECT SNOWFALL AND RESULTING SNOWFALL BIASES CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO LST OR MICROPHYSICS BIASES. EVALUATING THE REPRESENTATION OF HEAVY LES IN NU-WRF WILL BE GROUNDED IN CLOUDSAT/GPM PRODUCTS. WE WILL EVALUATE CLOUDSAT/GPM SNOWFALL RETRIEVALS AGAINST STATION OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO EVALUATING NU-WRF AGAINST CLOUDSAT/GPM VERTICAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRANSECTS FOR CASE STUDIES WE WILL EXAMINE THE SPECTRUM OF SNOW EVENTS THROUGH DENSITY FUNCTIONS OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY-BASED ESTIMATES OF SNOWFALL INTENSITY/FREQUENCY AND CLOUD ATTRIBUTES ALLOWING FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE MODEL S MICROPHYSICS. RADAR SIMULATORS WILL BE APPLIED TO MODEL OUTPUT TO COMPARE RADAR REFLECTIVITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN SIMULATED AND OBSERVED LES DATASETS.
OpenAlex ID: W4412462320