Work

A quantitative spatial model for evaluating transport-induced spatial reorganization

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Interregional transport improvements, such as highway and high-speed rail expansions, can significantly affect the spatial distribution of economic activity by enhancing agglomeration economies. Quantitative spatial models (QSMs) are a key tool for evaluating these effects; however, recent theoretical studies have identified a fundamental limitation: widely used QSMs invariably predict that transport cost reductions result in population dispersion rather than agglomeration in metropolitan areas. This prediction contradicts empirical evidence, suggesting that existing models cannot adequately represent transport policies’ complex spatial impacts. To address this issue, this study extends a QSM to better incorporate the mechanisms driving economic agglomeration. We incorporate recent theoretical advancements to develop a more generalized QSM that addresses restrictive assumptions that otherwise systematically predict dispersion. We apply our extended model to Japan’s highway network improvements, demonstrating that it successfully reflects economic agglomeration trends in major metropolitan areas. Furthermore, we estimate the spatial impacts of emerging autonomous vehicle technologies and truck platooning, finding that these innovations could help form a larger megalopolis centered on Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya.

Source: Transport Policy

DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.019

Authors: Tatsuya Sugimoto, Yuki Takayama, Akiyoshi Takagi

Institutions: Institute of Science Tokyo, Gifu University

Language: English

Topic: Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,890