Work

How random are team sports leagues?

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Competitive sports success is often attributed to a blend of luck and skill, with ongoing debates about the precise balance. This study analyzed historical rankings of major team sports leagues (three football, two basketball, and one ice hockey) to assess the extent to which competition outcomes are influenced by randomness. We created an agent-based model for sports teams, where team strength derives from the cumulative strengths of players. Disparities in team strengths influence game outcomes in the numerical simulations, mirroring Bonabeau’s concept of self-organized hierarchies in combat among animals. Like the archetype, our model exhibits a phase transition between deterministic and random phases. We calibrated the model using collected comprehensive sports data and discovered that real leagues operate near the boundary between the phases, suggesting a balanced impact of random factors and players’ abilities, with a slight advantage for the latter.

Source: Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130814

Authors: Maciej Pawlik, Robert Paluch, Michał Boruta, Janusz A. Hołyst

Institution: Warsaw University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,550