Uticaj savremenih demografskih procesa na kretanje broja učenika osnovne škole u općini Bugojno od 2012/13–2023/24. školske godine
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: According to the results of the Population Census in the municipality of Bugojno (hereinafter: Bugojno), in 2013, compared to 1991, the total number of inhabitants decreased by 32.9% or by 15,419 people. We can include Bugojno among those municipalities in Bosnia and Herzegovina that between 1991 and 2013 recorded one of the highest rates of decline in the total number of inhabitants. Like Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole, the population of Bugojno is characterized by an advanced process of demographic aging. The main factors of demographic aging are unfavorable processes in demoreproduction (decline in the birth rate), emigration, war losses, and the lack of quality-stimulating population policy, especially the pronatalist variant. The subject of research is the movement of the number of primary school students in the area of Bugojno, taking into account the influence of contemporary demographic processes. The aim of the research is to analyze and present the basic demographic processes, especially from 2014 to 2023, and to relate them to the trend in the number of primary school students. When it was necessary, the aforementioned period of analysis was expanded with earlier periods in order to obtain a more precise “framework” in which the number of primary school students changes and on the basis of which tendencies and future trends in the number of students can be determined. The period from the beginning of the 2012/2013 school year until the end of the 2023/24 school year was used to analyze data on the movement of the number of students. The hypothesis of the article is that there is a continuous process of reducing the number of students in Bugojno, as well as in all primary schools in the period from the 2012/2013 school year until 2023/2024, which is under the direct influence of contemporary demographic processes, primarily the decrease in the birth rate. The basic research sample consisted of 7 primary schools. Also, changes in the movement of the number of students at the level of district schools (departments), of which there are a total of 8, were noticed and analyzed. It should be noted that in the area of Bugojno, there is the characteristic presence and operation of “two schools under one roof” (two schools with different curriculums—Bosnian and Croatian). The basic feature of the natural population movement in Bugojno in the modern period is the natural depopulation since 2011. Total depopulation has been present since 2005 and represents, in addition to the aging of the population, one of the most important processes taking place in the demographic development of Bugojno. According to estimates by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, from 2014 to 2023, Bugojno lost 3.1% of its total population. The impact of the birth rate on the movement of the number of students in primary schools is evident, and the changes in the number of live births can clearly be seen as an influence on the changes in the number of students. This is especially evident when comparing the number of live births in the first and second decades of the 2000s with the number of students attending primary school. The movement of the number of students was analyzed at the level of the municipality and at the level of primary schools (central and district). In Bugojno and in all elementary schools, there is a process of reducing the number of students in the period from 2012/13. until 2023/24. school year. Projections of the number of students show that the trend of decreasing the number of primary school students will continue in the future. In the first half of 2024, a survey was conducted on a spatially and demographically stratified sample of 300 respondents in order to find out the population's perception of the main problems of primary education and the population of Bugojno in general. The results of the survey showed that the respondents want to have more children than they currently have, but the development opportunities present in the municipality and the wider area prevent them from doing so. Respondents pointed out low wages and unemployment as the main problems of the population in Bugojno and as the main problems of primary education, the outdated education system, and weak school infrastructure and technology.
Source: Historijski pogledi
Author: Haris Gekić
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4412513796